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1994-11-13
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Date: Fri, 15 Apr 94 04:30:02 PDT
From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu>
Errors-To: Info-Hams-Errors@UCSD.Edu
Reply-To: Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu
Precedence: Bulk
Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #418
To: Info-Hams
Info-Hams Digest Fri, 15 Apr 94 Volume 94 : Issue 418
Today's Topics:
Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 April
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----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Wed, 13 Apr 1994 23:12:04 MDT
From: galaxy.ucr.edu!library.ucla.edu!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!news.umbc.edu!eff!news.kei.com!yeshua.marcam.com!zip.eecs.umich.edu!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta@ihnp4.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 April
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
11 APRIL, 1994
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 APRIL, 1994
---------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 101, 04/11/94
10.7 FLUX=074.3 90-AVG=095 SSN=015 BKI=3565 3334 BAI=032
BGND-XRAY=A1.4 FLU1=1.4E+06 FLU10=9.7E+03 PKI=4665 4334 PAI=039
BOU-DEV=032,099,130,088,021,029,035,067 DEV-AVG=062 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= B1.0 @ 0528UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2101UT XRAY-AVG= A3.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0640UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0510UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2345UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2205UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 2226UT BOUTF-MIN=55294NT @ 0902UT BOUTF-AVG=55327NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 1613UT GOES6-MIN=N:-114NT@ 0648UT G6-AVG=+086,+030,-053
FLUXFCST=STD:115,115,110;SESC:115,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/025,020,015
KFCST=3445 5333 3344 5333 27DAY-AP=042,018 27DAY-KP=5655 5544 4343 3433
WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 APR 94 was 12.0.
The Full Kp Indices for 10 APR 94 are: 5- 5- 4- 5- 5o 4- 3+ 4-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 10 APR 94 are: 44 38 25 39 51 23 17 25
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 11 APR is: 9.6E+08
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity was very low. Region 7700 (N10E34)
evolved to be a stacked bipole, but has been quiet. New spots
may be emerging in the western hemisphere near N18W40.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
very low.
The geomagnetic field has varied from unsettled to major
storm levels, with the most disturbed periods occurring
during local nighttime hours. This lingering disturbance is
thought to be due to high speed solar wind emanating from
the southern polar crown coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluence is again at very high levels.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 48 hours, with
intervals of minor to major storming at night. April 14 should
see predominantly unsettled conditions.
Event probabilities 12 apr-14 apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 apr-14 apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-Severe Storm 15/15/10
HF propagation conditions continued well below normal.
Improvements are now not expected until 13 or 14 April over the
upper-middle to polar latitudes, but should begin recovering over the
lower latitude regions over the next 24 to 48 hours.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z APRIL
--------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7700 N09E34 202 0030 CSO 05 005 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 APRIL TO 14 APRIL
NMBR LAT LO
NONE
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 APRIL, 1994
----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
NONE
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 APRIL, 1994
--------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
76 S24E61 S24E61 S07E31 N13E53 185 ISO POS 014 10830A
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
10 Apr: 1120 1124 1131 SF 7700 N10E55
1228 1231 1237 B1.8
1511 1525 1529 B5.8 SF 7700 N11E52
1541 1543 1548 SF 7700 N10E52
1634 1638 1647 B4.2
1935 1939 1941 B2.2 SF 7700 N11E51
2109 2112 2117 B1.0 SF 7700 N10E50
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7700: 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 005 (71.4)
Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (28.6)
Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
NO EVENTS OBSERVED.
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **
------------------------------
End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #418
******************************